Monday, August 7, 2023

Are the rich more trustworthy than the poor? 1000% tax on "assault weapons"

Are the rich more trustworthy than the poor? That is the questioned imposed by putting heavy taxes on common consumer products or "sin taxes". Making alcohol or cigarettes more expensive via taxes, or firearms, is basically an attack against the poor, as it intends for us to believe that those with less financial means are somehow less responsible and should be priced out of being able to afford the same goods.


There was a bill proposed in the house that likely will die in the senate that wants to tax "assault weapons" by 1000%, which is by definition approximately 90% of guns in the U.S. It likely will fail when it reaches the senate, but it brings up an important question, if the goal is just to try and stop ordinary civilians from getting access to firearms, isn't this classist, and basically insisting that only the rich are responsible enough to handle owning guns? The average AR-15 is about 1000 bucks, so purchasing one would now become close to 10,000 dollars. Criminals don't have to worry about cost, as they steal money and a gun is an investment to help them steal more money (I.E. they can rob stores better with it), and most civilians don't make money by owning guns. And criminals can steal guns or get them from the black market, where a black market ak-47 is already close to 200 bucks internationally, and is fully automatic which is completely illegal in the U.S. anyways (for guns made after 1986).

Most criminals, approximately 85% or so, get their guns from the black market, as they wouldn't pass the background checks necessary to purchase guns in the first place. And they wouldn't want people to know that they purchased a gun if they plan on using it illegally, hence why they go through backroom channels. With illegal smuggling as high as it is and "ghost guns", it's relatively easy to manufacture or get these off the books as it is. This will decidedly have no impact on violence or criminals and simply punish poor people who try to defend themselves and can't afford armed security or expensive weapons. But, what do you think, do you support anti-poor policies to keep them from having the same privilege's and rights as rich people? If so, why, do you think the rich are inherently more trustworthy than the poor?


Tuesday, March 19, 2019

The Depth and Scope of the Problem - Mass shootings vs. Other methods of mass murder

The Depth and Scope of the Problem - Mass shootings vs. Other methods of mass murder
In the United States [1][2][3], there has been three mass shootings attacks which killed more than 30 people, 6 which killed more than 20, 22 which killed 10 or more, and 35 which killed 8 or more people, and about 80 which killed over 4 (78 between 1983 and 2012) [4], and between 100-150 which killed 3 or more. [5][6] The deadliest mass shooting in the entire world killed 67 people with a handgun, and 58 in the U.S. in the vegas shooting. This is a regular occurrence with car bombings around the world [1][2][3], which almost all kill over 8, and still pales in comparison to other forms of attacks, such as arson with an arson attack killing 86 in the U.S. and 400 in Iran, the Oklahoma City Bombing attack killing 168, the Jim Jones poisoning massacre killing 900, and 9/11 killing 3,000. 9/11 has killed more than all the mass shootings in the last 30-40 years in the U.S. combined, largely because this is how far back the records go, depending on the source. It makes up decades worth of mass shootings, as do many other attacks. The argument that guns are the problem when other weapons obviously can and do kill more people, with car bombings largely being made from fertilizer, and arson being done with gasoline, poison with rat poison and vehicle ramming attacks with cars or planes, points to the idea that guns are not the problem. People are the problem. It's difficult to express the frustration over gun control arguments, when no-one would even think of regulating fertilizer, hydrogen peroxide, matches and gasoline, and so on after an attack,but for some reason, regulations are on guns and knives are rather frequent, despite not even being as deadly.

Just looking at the list of car bombings, hundreds kill over 30, and dozens have killed over 100, making it hard to grasp in terms of the scope of the problem. These represent years, literally years worth of mass shootings per attack, even by the broadest of definitions of attacks, such as 3 or more injured, and other more deadly attacks like various grain poisonings killing hundreds, or plane attacks killing over 150, When one realizes that the average mass shooting kills about 1 to 1.6 people per attack [1][2], and very few ever break over 3, less than 1%, it's easier to understand in context the raw danger of explosives and virtually every other form of attack available. According to the Guardian there's been 1624 attacks which killed 1875 people in a span of about 6 years, or approximately 1.15 people killed per attack and 300-350 per year, where as according to Mass Shooting tracker, X. While the definition varies from source to source, most indicate a death rate of under 2 per attack, and only a little over 1 per attack, with it being extremely rare for 3 or more to die. Nonetheless, the average death for car bombings is far higher than this, although it has received far less attention, and thus complete lists are much harder to find. The emphasis and focus on guns is arbitrary, given the lethality of other attacks, however it is a consistent problem with the media. In fact, media coverage by itself has a tendency to influence the type of attacks which occur.

Numerous studies have found that copy cat murder surge after media coverage of an attack occurs. Thus, the media's obsession with mass shootings encourages more to occur, which despite the intense coverage and thus growing figure, still is less than all the deaths from a single bombing attack in the U.S.

Wednesday, November 15, 2017

Mass bombing Casualties in the U.S. since 1910

Mass murder by Bombings vs. Mass shootings (in the U.S.)
A more concise excel document of the information is available in the link. On average, mass shootings killed 1.6 and injured 5, and mass bombings killed 13 and injured 54 on average in the U.S.

Mass shootings are a contentious topic, due to the nature of people dying and the disagreements on the proposed solutions to deal with the problem. Regardless, there are other methods of mass murder, many that are more deadly than those by guns and that have more easily obtainable resources required to commit the crime. This includes arson, poison, truck or vehicle attacks, and even potentially bombing attacks; while not the most common methods, most of these attacks can generally kill more people than with guns. As well, many forms of attacks involved multiple sources of attack, such as a shooting which used a gun and a knife, or a bombing attack that involved vehicle ramming first. 9/11 for instance has the distinction of being a hostage situation, vehicle ramming attack, improved bombing attack, and arson, making it rather precarious in regards to it's classification and thus could artificially inflate the numbers. Regardless, good data on the average person killed per incident is not generally available, and there are relatively poor and inconsistent records available, requiring original research to derive an accurate conclusion. While my dataset will be incomplete, it is the most comprehensive source available at the time and I welcome more complete information by institutions with better resources and manpower, as well as time to devote to the project.

For ease of comparison, the definitions used will be 3 or more injured to qualify as a mass causality event, or mass murder event (although in some cases no-one will be murdered), and start from the 1910's for most attacks, or the 1970's for guns and trucks. The reason for the distinction in time frame is the difference in lethality of the attacks; while explosives have remained roughly as lethal for the most part over the last 100 years, firearms, such as "military style" variants or semiautomatic repeating weapons are a recent phenomena, and thus an aggregate source of modern shootings is more relevant to the current political climate, than in comparison to all poison or bombings attacks, for instance. While the argument could be made that a musket is decidedly less lethal than a bomb, the modern argument revolves around modern guns, and thus only modern shootings will be compared to all forms of mass murder by other types. This is also less relevant to the gun control debate, which is at the forefront of the reason for these statistics. While the data itself should be interpreted through an objective lens, invariably politics is impossible to ignore and thus will unfortunately be a major factor in the information and what it reveals, which is that other more easily available weapons can kill more than guns, which require a background check to own, and chemicals that could start a fire or make a bomb often do not.

As a result the data is geared in part to question established narratives and reveal insight in to political positions or the efficacy that gun control could bring if other more deadly weapons could replace guns, in their absence. To answer the basic question of, could criminals kill as many people if they switched to other weapons than guns, that would still be available after a gun ban, the resounding answer is yes, and many of these forms of murder have no means to be further regulated. An example of mass murderers switching to another type of murder than mass shootings and ending up with more crime, would be Australia. Despite only a handful of mass shootings in Australia after strict gun control legislation was enacted, all the mass shootings combined from 1971 to 1996, before strict gun control measures, killed less people than a single arson attack in 2008, which killed 171 people and injured 414, in comparison to 121 killed and 90 injured by all the mass shootings of the previous decades. This hopefully reveals the scope of danger, as many other forms of attacks that are more deadly than guns, even multiple shootings combined, will still be present even with gun control. The average mass shooting kills on average 1.6 people and injures 5 total, for a total of 6.6 total casualties, and only 78 in the 1983-2012 time frame kill more than 4 people, out of approximately 400 events a year or, 12,000 in the time frame. This means less than 1% of mass shootings kill more than 4 people, while dozens of bombings have killed more than this. This information, while objective, nonetheless stands in opposition to many political opinions, which will be impossible to ignore.

In comparison, the deadliest mass shooting in the world, with a 10-round pocket pistol that is legal in an assault weapons ban, killed 67 people in Norway. The deadliest terrorist attack in the world was 9/11, which killed 3,000 people and injured 8,900, which is more than over a decades worth of mass shootings in the U.S., combined. Other attacks, such s the Oklahoma city bombing attack killed 168 and injured 680, while attacks in Iraq with car bombs killed 796 and injured over 1500. An Arson in Iran killed at least 400 people, and a mass poisoning killed at least 459 in Iraq (although debate exists on if this qualifies as murder or not). Explosives, arson, and even poison decidedly kill more people, with mass vehicle-ramming attacks, such as by trucks, just barely exceeding that of guns (such as an attack in Nice, France kill 86 and injuring 458 ). Many other forms of attack can kill more people than guns, and often times more than hundreds of mass shootings combined. Nonetheless, question still exists over the difficulty of making or using these weapons and their average death count. While a sad topic to discuss, the average number of people killed per mass attack, by other types, reveals the relative difficulty of making and using the weapons in part, and directly compares their lethality to other mass causality events, such as mass shootings. While intuitively it doesn't seem to take much to light a fire, drive a car, put poison in bags of food or fertilizer, or even mix two chemicals together to make a bomb, many still question the difficulty of this.

In that regard, what is the average death and injury rate of the different types of mass murders? The following will include the average death and injury rate for mass knife attacks, explosives, arson, poison and truck attacks, in the United States, from 1910 and onwards (and 1983 for firearms). This will contrast the mass shooting figure, which is already well recorded. 9/11 offsets these statistics substantially, and as an outlier, data will be presenting both including and removing the 9/11 death toll in the averages, to provide a sense of scale of what a single attack can do and to remain more accurate. For these reason the figures will both show the statistical average with and without 9/11, to give a sense of clarity and due to the troublesome nature of it's classification. Accidents will also be included and excluded in the figure, to show what could happen or what has happened by accident to represent the danger of the weapons themselves, but will be removed from mass murder figures. Thus three data sets will be present, the average with 9/11, the average without, and the average with accidents included (such as fertilizer plant explosions or accidental poisoning of grain).

According to mass shooting tracker, there were 372 mass shootings in the US in 2015, killing 475 people and wounding 1,870. While there are potential problems with the source (which also counts things such as gang violence or mass suicides), it is widely used by pro-gun control sources, making it more bipartisan than others. According to this data, the mass shootings on average resulted in 1.6 killed and 5 injured per incident, which is decidedly less than the 13 killed and 54 injured by explosives. Further, very few mass shootings actually kill over 4 people (Page 2), compared to many other causes of mass murder which regularly kill over 100. Only 78 out of the mass shootings in the last 30 years, from 1983 to 2012, despite some 300-400 mass shootings a year total, in the U.S. have killed more than 4 people. This is roughly less than 1%, or 78 out of 12,000 mass shootings killing more than 4 people, despite the average mass bombing killing 13 and injuring 54 (ignoring 9/11 and the world trade center bombing).





Mass bombings in U.S. with 3 or more injured
A lit of Mass bombings in the  U.S. with 3 or more injured from 1910 and onwards, and their average death and injury rate per attack. The average death per bombing was approximately 13 killed and 54 injured, per attack if 9/11 and most of the world trade center attack's injuries are excluded. This is decidedly much higher than the 1.6 killed and 5 injured per attack by mass shootings in the U.S. This means that if shooters switched to bombs, more people would die.

Mass bombings with over 3 casualties, on average resulted in roughly 13 killed and 54 injured per attack, 81 injured per attack when the world trade center attack is included, and 91 killed and 236 injured per attack when 9/11 is included. This is contrast with 1.6 killed and 5 injured per attack in the U.S. on average. While it varies from year to year this is a rough aggregate of those figures. The causality figures do not include the attacker, and just the victims, although due different in records, especially in regards to injuries, these numbers may vary.

While the ease of making a bomb varies with the type of bomb in question, in general the same skill and planning that goes in to a mass shooting, if directed towards explosives, would be more deadly. As tannerite (made from fertilizer or cold packs and aluminum foil or fuel), acetone peroxide (paint thinner and hydrogen peroxide), and air pressure bombs (such as from a pressure cooker or scuba tank) are fairly easy to obtain and create, the question of availability is more or less irrelevant as, these items are less regulated than guns. As all it takes is mixing these chemicals together to make the bomb, it does not require substantial intelligence to do. More sophisticated bombs can also easily be made, which take only a few more steps, such as ETN (made by nitrating Erythritrol, a common sugar), or Picric Acid, and the bombs can be mixed with poison or incendiary agents, or set off inside of a plane or building.



Mass Shooting
-1.6 killed, 5 injured on average
-1% of events kill more than 4 people
-67 people killed in worst instance in world

Other Forms of attacks (In the U.S.)
-Mass Bombing Attack average (13 killed, 54 injured), with 9/11 (91 killed, 236 injured)
-17 out of 37 (46%) killed more than 4 people
-168 killed in second worst attack, 3,000 killed in worst attack (9/11)



NameDateLocationKilledInjuredNotes*
Total Average13.1654.00
Figures will both include and remove 9/11, as 9/11 was the single deadliest terrorist attack in history, qualifies as multiple attacks and serves as a large outlier to most attacks.
Total Average with 9/11 and Trade Center Bombing
91.18236.79
Figures will both include and exclude the injuries from the world trade center bombings, due to their presence as a potential outlier
Total4872998
Injured figures are usually much higher than presented in the documents and are rounded to the nearest approximate figure
Total with 9/1134658998
Deaths of attackers not included in total figures
The attack date starts at 1910 and includes events with 3 or more casualties in the U.S.
The Total number of attacks is
9/11 AttacksSeptember 11th29786000
Terrorist Attacks13.27116.32
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terrorism_in_the_United_States
Los Angeles times BombingOct 1, 1910Los Angeles, CA21100
The World trade center bombing is responsible for most of the injuries and thus could be considered and outlier
Preparedness Day Bombing Jul 22, 1916San Francisco, CA1040
Total injury average with World Trade Center Bombing
81.02702703
Black Tom ExplosionJul 30, 1916Jersey City, NJ7100
Milwaukee ExplosionNov 24, 1917Milwaukee, WI102
Wall Street bombingSep 16, 1920New York City, NY38143
Bath School disasterMay 18, 1927Bath Township, MI4458
Boeing 247 ExplosionOct 10, 1933Chesterton, IN70
World Fair BombingJul 4, 1940New York City, NY22
Mad Bomber BombingsJul 4, 1940New York City, NY010
Sunday Bombings1960New York City, NY151
Marine Midland BombingAug 20, 1969New York City, NY020
FALN bombingsNew York City, NY569
Sterling Hall bombingAug 24, 1970Madison, WI13
Alphabet Bomber1974Los Angeles, CA336
LaGuardia Airport BombingDec 29, 1975New York City, NY1175
Fraunces Tavern bombingJan 24, 1975New York City, NY450
TWA airliner BombingSep 11, 1976Mid-air13
DINA BombingSep 21, 1976Washington D.C.21
World Trade Center bombingFeb 26, 1993New York City, NY61042
Oklahoma City Bombing attackApr 19, 1995Oklahoma City, OK168680
Centennial Olympic Park bombingJul 27, 1996Atlanta, GA1111
Army of God attackJan 16, 1997Sandy Springs, GA06
Army of God attackFeb 21, 1997Atlanta, GA05
1997 Brooklyn bombing plotJul 31, 1997New York City, NY03
Boston Marathon bombingApr 15, 2013Boston, MA3264
2016 New York and New Jersey bombingsSep 17, 2016New York City, NY034
Other Attacks12.909090918.181818182
16th Street Baptist Church bombingSep 16, 1963Birmingham, AL422
http://www.johnstonsarchive.net/terrorism/wrjp255a.html
Anarchist BombingsJun 2, 1919New York City, NY23
Radio City Music Hall bombingNov 7, 1954New York City, NY04
United Air Lines ExplosionNov 1, 1955Longmont, CO440
Paramount Theater bombingDec 2, 1956Brooklyn, NY06
Houston School BombingSep 15, 1959Houston, TX618
National Airlines flight bombedJan 6, 1960Bolivia, NC340
Continental flight bombedMay 22, 1962Unionville, MO440
Las Vegas motelJan 26, 1972Las Vegas, NV612
Jewish Defense League firebombsJan 26, 1972New York City, NY213
American Airlines Smoke BombNov 15, 1979Chicago, IL012